Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 132,948
2 South Dakota 129,955
3 Rhode Island 124,777
4 Utah 118,460
5 Arizona 114,625
6 Tennessee 114,449
7 Oklahoma 109,557
8 Iowa 109,115
9 Arkansas 108,615
10 Wisconsin 107,732
11 Nebraska 106,438
12 South Carolina 104,123
13 Alabama 103,907
14 Kansas 103,580
15 Mississippi 101,339
16 Indiana 100,665
17 Idaho 98,815
18 Nevada 97,459
19 Illinois 96,060
20 Montana 95,999
21 Wyoming 95,806
22 New Jersey 95,570
23 Georgia 95,441
24 Texas 94,591
25 Louisiana 94,433
26 Kentucky 94,407
27 Missouri 93,909
28 Delaware 93,578
29 Florida 92,608
30 California 91,901
31 New York 90,576
32 New Mexico 90,091
33 Minnesota 88,663
34 Massachusetts 87,976
35 North Carolina 85,263
36 Ohio 85,009
37 Alaska 82,634
38 Connecticut 82,553
39 Colorado 77,767
40 Pennsylvania 76,477
41 West Virginia 76,073
42 Virginia 70,115
43 Michigan 68,116
44 Maryland 65,471
45 District of Columbia 60,660
46 New Hampshire 58,370
47 Washington 46,589
48 Puerto Rico 42,885
49 Oregon 38,017
50 Maine 35,404
51 Vermont 27,413
52 Hawaii 20,074

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 529
2 New Jersey 407
3 Alabama 394
4 Connecticut 350
5 Michigan 349
6 New York 349
7 Alaska 298
8 Tennessee 284
9 Delaware 253
10 Idaho 239
11 Montana 239
12 Pennsylvania 212
13 North Carolina 211
14 Massachusetts 196
15 Florida 189
16 New Hampshire 184
17 South Carolina 173
18 Texas 173
19 Kentucky 164
20 Wyoming 164
21 West Virginia 161
22 Minnesota 151
23 Georgia 150
24 Iowa 145
25 Nebraska 145
26 Utah 145
27 Virginia 145
28 District of Columbia 141
29 Maine 140
30 North Dakota 134
31 South Dakota 129
32 Ohio 128
33 Kansas 121
34 Maryland 120
35 Louisiana 115
36 Vermont 115
37 Illinois 114
38 Washington 111
39 Colorado 109
40 Wisconsin 97
41 New Mexico 94
42 Indiana 93
43 Nevada 93
44 Arkansas 92
45 Mississippi 92
46 Oklahoma 87
47 Missouri 85
48 Arizona 72
49 California 70
50 Oregon 57
51 Hawaii 36
52 Puerto Rico 36

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,702
2 New York 2,502
3 Rhode Island 2,442
4 Massachusetts 2,427
5 Mississippi 2,330
6 Arizona 2,278
7 Connecticut 2,189
8 South Dakota 2,164
9 Louisiana 2,141
10 Alabama 2,113
11 North Dakota 1,955
12 Pennsylvania 1,933
13 Indiana 1,915
14 New Mexico 1,847
15 Illinois 1,835
16 Arkansas 1,824
17 Iowa 1,796
18 South Carolina 1,734
19 Tennessee 1,692
20 Michigan 1,682
21 Georgia 1,676
22 Nevada 1,671
23 Kansas 1,660
24 Texas 1,620
25 Delaware 1,556
26 Ohio 1,539
27 Florida 1,513
28 District of Columbia 1,479
29 California 1,441
30 Missouri 1,434
31 West Virginia 1,431
32 Maryland 1,339
33 Montana 1,308
34 Wisconsin 1,237
35 Minnesota 1,210
36 Oklahoma 1,210
37 Wyoming 1,197
38 Virginia 1,189
39 Kentucky 1,163
40 Nebraska 1,156
41 North Carolina 1,123
42 Idaho 1,083
43 Colorado 1,065
44 New Hampshire 884
45 Washington 684
46 Puerto Rico 652
47 Utah 635
48 Oregon 559
49 Maine 539
50 Alaska 400
51 Vermont 347
52 Hawaii 316

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Oklahoma 7
2 Rhode Island 6
3 West Virginia 6
4 Kentucky 5
5 Louisiana 5
6 Virginia 5
7 Georgia 4
8 Idaho 4
9 Massachusetts 4
10 Pennsylvania 4
11 Texas 4
12 Arkansas 3
13 California 3
14 Connecticut 3
15 Delaware 3
16 Florida 3
17 Mississippi 3
18 Nevada 3
19 New Jersey 3
20 New Mexico 3
21 New York 3
22 Ohio 3
23 South Carolina 3
24 Alabama 2
25 Iowa 2
26 Maryland 2
27 North Carolina 2
28 Oregon 2
29 Arizona 1
30 Colorado 1
31 District of Columbia 1
32 Illinois 1
33 Indiana 1
34 Kansas 1
35 Michigan 1
36 Missouri 1
37 Montana 1
38 South Dakota 1
39 Utah 1
40 Vermont 1
41 Washington 1
42 Wisconsin 1
43 Wyoming 1
44 Alaska 0
45 Hawaii 0
46 Maine 0
47 Minnesota 0
48 Nebraska 0
49 New Hampshire 0
50 North Dakota 0
51 Puerto Rico 0
52 Tennessee 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 346,972 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 303,567 2 99
Bent Colorado 265,914 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 243,474 4 99
Dewey South Dakota 243,381 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 132,915 220 92
Richland South Carolina 102,853 1057 66
York South Carolina 98,744 1250 60
Orange California 83,200 1979 37
Pierce Washington 44,626 2905 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Foard Texas 7,792 3 99
Galax city Virginia 7,720 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,669 5 99
Orange California 1,420 1811 42
Davidson Tennessee 1,259 2003 36
Richland South Carolina 1,251 2023 35
York South Carolina 1,224 2060 34
Pierce Washington 652 2710 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons